There are lots people who are enthusiastic about Flex 2. But how many? Adobe announced the goal to have a million Flex developers in about three years. Last week I read a blog on O’Reilly called 1 in every 10 Java developers is learning Flex. This blog has some interesting comments from well known people. I’ll try to do my math to come up with a more or less real number.
We at Farata Systems started actively blogging about six months ago, and currently about 7000 unique visitors read our blog each month. First of all, thank you all who read our posts, we’ll keep it up. Since we publish lots of technical Flex materials, I assume that most of our readers are developers. Flex community is pretty active, and if 10% of all Flex developers visit our blog, there is total of 70000 of Flex Developers who can read English. Even if the number of Flex developers will double each year, I still do not see a million any time soon.
We need to do a correction to my math, because we’ve forgotten about people who instead of screaming on the net “Flex is cool” are quietly studying Flex in vocational schools in Bangalore suburbs. They are not registering themselves on Flex forums. But sure enough they’ll quickly double the number of Flex developers in three years.
So what’s my message? We have about three years until the market for Flex developers will get saturated. Do not waste your time… if you know what I mean.